The Victorian Liberal Party is currently cannibalizing its own future in a cycle of factional warfare that shows no sign of ending. Following the sudden withdrawal of a candidate specifically chosen to replace the expelled Moira Deeming, the party has been forced back to the drawing board for the Western Metropolitan Region. This isn’t just a localized administrative hiccup. It is a symptom of a deeper, systemic rot within a branch that has forgotten how to win elections because it is too busy settling internal scores.
The vacancy in the upper house was supposed to be the moment the party turned the page. By removing Deeming and installing a fresh face, the leadership hoped to project a sense of moderation and stability to a Victorian electorate that has repeatedly rejected the party's more hardline elements. Instead, the "solution" has evaporated, leaving the Liberal brand looking disorganized, reactive, and fundamentally incapable of basic succession planning.
The High Cost of Symbolic Victories
Political parties usually treat preselections as a chance to find the best possible representative for a community. In the current Victorian climate, however, these contests have become proxy wars for ideological dominance. When the candidate who defeated the Deeming legacy withdrew, they didn't just leave a hole in a ballot paper; they exposed the fragility of the peace brokered by John Pesutto’s leadership team.
The withdrawal suggests that the vetting process is either broken or being bypassed by factional urgency. In the rush to find anyone who could technically "beat" the incumbent's influence, the party failed to secure a candidate with the stomach for the inevitable internal blowback. Politics in Victoria is a blood sport, and the Western Metropolitan Region is currently the most dangerous arena in the state.
Any candidate entering this space isn't just fighting the Labor Party. They are fighting the remnants of the Deeming support base, the skeptical power brokers in the administrative wing, and a media cycle that smells blood in the water. To step down so soon after a hard-fought preselection victory signals that the internal environment has become toxic to the point of being unworkable for those not already hardened by decades of factional combat.
A Leadership Under Siege
John Pesutto took the leadership with a mandate to modernize. That modernization required a clean break from the controversies of the past, specifically the fallout from the "Let Women Speak" rally and the subsequent legal and social firestorm involving Moira Deeming. However, you cannot modernize a house while the foundations are being actively undermined by the tenants.
The party leadership now faces a grim reality. Every time they try to move forward, a new procedural failure drags them back into the mud of 2023. This latest preselection failure isn't just a win for the hard-right elements of the party; it’s an indictment of the center’s ability to manage its own house. If the leadership cannot guarantee a stable candidate in a safe or winnable seat, donors walk away. Volunteers stay home. The path to the 2026 election, which should be paved with Labor’s infrastructure cost overruns and debt levels, is instead blocked by Liberal-on-Liberal litigation and procedural incompetence.
The Western Suburbs Vacuum
While the Liberals argue over who gets to sit in the upper house, the actual voters in the Western Metropolitan Region are being ignored. This is an area undergoing massive demographic shifts, with growing migrant communities and young families who are feeling the squeeze of interest rates and a failing healthcare system. These are people the Liberal Party needs to win over if they ever want to govern again.
Instead of talking about transport or schools, the party is talking about its own rules. The "Deeming Factor" has become a black hole, sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Every time a Liberal spokesperson stands in front of a microphone to talk about the cost of living, they are asked about the latest preselection drama or the status of a lawsuit. It is a gift to the Allan Government, which can simply point to the opposition and ask if they look like a government-in-waiting.
The answer, currently, is a resounding no.
The Mechanics of Internal Failure
Why does this keep happening? To understand the "how," you have to look at the Victorian Liberal Administrative Committee. This body is responsible for the rules governing how candidates are chosen. In recent years, these rules have been weaponized.
- Vetting Failures: Candidates are often cleared based on who they know rather than their actual resilience or background.
- Factional Stacking: Branches are often inflated with "paper members" who turn up once a year to vote for a specific person, leading to candidates who have no broad appeal outside of a tiny, motivated group.
- Legal Paralysis: The threat of defamation or breach of contract lawsuits hangs over almost every major decision, making the party hierarchy timid and prone to middle-of-the-road compromises that satisfy nobody.
This environment doesn't attract high-flyers from the private sector or community leaders. It attracts individuals who are willing to navigate a swamp. When one of them realizes how deep the water is and climbs back out, the party is left looking amateurish.
The Specter of the Crossbench
There is a very real danger that this seat, which should be a stronghold for a major party, will eventually fall to a motivated independent or a minor party if the Liberals cannot get their act together. The electorate is tired of the drama. If the "Liberal" brand becomes synonymous with "Internal Chaos," voters will look for alternatives that actually want to represent them.
Moira Deeming herself remains a potent symbol for a specific wing of the party. Her expulsion didn't end the argument; it just moved the battlefield. Every time a replacement candidate fails or a new preselection is called, her supporters are emboldened to claim that the party is lost without its "conviction" politicians. This creates a feedback loop where the leadership is forced to move further toward the center to win the general public, while the base pulls harder toward the fringes.
The Strategic Path Forward
If the Victorian Liberals want to survive this, they need to stop looking for "anti-Deeming" candidates and start looking for "pro-Victoria" candidates. The criteria for the next preselection cannot simply be loyalty to the current leadership or a lack of controversial opinions. It must be about competence and the ability to withstand a hostile internal culture.
The party needs to:
- Standardize the vetting process to ensure candidates have the psychological and financial stability to last a full term.
- Reduce the power of small, factionally-aligned branches to dictate the future of the state-wide party.
- Cease the public litigating of internal disputes, which only serves to provide the Labor Party with free campaign material.
The clock is ticking toward the next state election. Labor is vulnerable on many fronts, but those vulnerabilities mean nothing if the alternative is a party that can’t even hold a successful internal vote. The Western Metropolitan vacancy is a small seat in a large parliament, but right now, it is the most accurate barometer of whether the Victorian Liberal Party is a serious political organization or a debating club for factional warlords.
The upcoming preselection will not just decide who sits in the Legislative Council. It will decide if John Pesutto has any actual authority left, or if the party is simply waiting for the inevitable collapse to start again from the ashes. There is no more room for "unforeseen" withdrawals or administrative errors. The next candidate must be the final candidate, or the party risks entering the 2026 cycle as a spent force.
The real tragedy is that while the blue room burns, the state’s problems remain unaddressed by those who claim to be the only ones capable of fixing them. Victory is not found in the expulsion of enemies or the winning of a committee vote. It is found in the ability to offer a stable, coherent alternative to the people of Victoria. Right now, that alternative doesn't exist.
The Liberal Party must decide if it wants to be a church of ideological purity or a broad church capable of winning the Treasury benches. You cannot be both when your house is divided against itself.
