The headlines are screaming about a "global energy apocalypse" because the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed. Trump is on Truth Social promising to open it "one way or another," and the "experts" are busy hand-wringing over $150-a-barrel oil. They are all asking the wrong question. They are obsessed with a 21-mile-wide strip of water as if it’s the only valve on the world’s heart.
It’s not. It’s a vestigial organ.
If you’ve spent any time in the energy sector, you know the "Hormuz Panic" is a ritual. I’ve watched traders lose their shirts betting on permanent disruptions every time a mine is spotted near Bandar Abbas. The truth is much colder: the world doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz to be "open" in the way it used to be. It needs to stop pretending that 20th-century maritime security is the solution to 21st-century energy volatility.
The Myth of "Opening" the Strait
The competitor narrative suggests that if the U.S. Navy just starts escorting tankers, the "gridlock" clears and the world goes back to normal. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of modern asymmetric warfare.
In the 1980s "Tanker War," you needed a navy to stop a navy. Today, as we saw with the Houthi disruptions in 2025, you only need a $20,000 drone or a few shore-based ballistic missiles to make a $200 million tanker uninsurable. Trump can send the entire Pacific Fleet into the Gulf; it won't matter. If one Iranian "kamikaze" boat gets lucky, or a single mine is detected, the Lloyd’s of London underwriters will pull the plug on war-risk cover.
You cannot "open" a waterway where the risk-to-reward ratio for shipping companies is negative. The U.S. Navy isn't a cleaning service; it can't scrub every square inch of the seabed for mines while dodging supersonic anti-ship missiles fired from mobile launchers hidden in the Zagros Mountains.
The US Energy Independence Lie
The most dangerous misconception being peddled right now is that the U.S. is "insulated" because we are a net exporter of oil. This is the "lazy consensus" at its worst.
Yes, the U.S. produces massive amounts of light, sweet crude. But our refineries—the massive, complex beasts on the Gulf Coast—were built to process the heavy, sour sludge that comes out of the Middle East. We export what we produce and import what we actually use.
When Hormuz closes, the global price of Brent crude spikes. Because oil is a fungible global commodity, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) follows it up like a shadow.
- The Fact: A 10% drop in global supply doesn't lead to a 10% price increase; it leads to a 50% or 100% price spike as every nation on earth enters a bidding war for the remaining barrels.
- The Reality: The U.S. consumer pays the "Hormuz Tax" at the pump regardless of how many rigs are running in the Permian Basin.
Stop Protecting the Water; Start Protecting the Flow
The obsession with the Strait is a distraction from the real solution: bypass infrastructure and localized refining.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already built pipelines to circumvent the chokepoint. The East-West Pipeline (Petroline) and the Habshan-Fujairah link are the real strategic assets. Instead of wasting billions on carrier strike groups to sit in a "shooting gallery" inside the Gulf, that capital should have been—and must now be—diverted into expanding the capacity of these overland routes.
The Contrarian Playbook for Energy Security
If we want to actually "fix" the Hormuz problem, we have to stop trying to win a naval war and start winning a logistics war.
- De-Risk through Decentralization: The era of the "Mega-Tanker" is a liability. We need smaller, faster, more modular transport systems that don't represent a catastrophic loss if targeted.
- Strategic Pipeline Overlays: We need a "NATO for Pipelines." Regional players should be incentivized to link their inland grids to Red Sea and Mediterranean ports. If the oil doesn't have to touch the Persian Gulf, the Iranian leverage disappears instantly.
- Refinery Re-Tooling: If the U.S. wants true "energy independence," it needs to stop subsidizing drilling and start subsidizing the re-tooling of domestic refineries to handle domestic crude grades.
The Cost of the "Strongman" Narrative
Trump’s rhetoric about "decimating" Iran’s military capability sounds good on a campaign trail, but it ignores the "Hydra" effect. You can destroy 90% of a formal navy, but you cannot destroy the geography that allows a handful of insurgents with a GPS and a drone to hold 20% of the world's energy supply hostage.
The downside of my approach? It’s boring. It involves engineering, multi-year infrastructure projects, and diplomatic heavy lifting with allies who "aren't pulling their weight." It doesn't look as cool as a Tomahawk missile launch on the evening news.
But it’s the only way to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant.
The goal shouldn't be to "open" the Strait. The goal should be to make sure it doesn't matter if it's closed. Until we accept that the 21-mile S-curve is an obsolete dependency, we will continue to be at the mercy of whoever is willing to throw the first stone into the water.
Build the pipelines. Re-tool the refineries. Let the Strait of Hormuz become a historical footnote.
That is the only way out.
